← The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 20 | 13-4-3 | 72.5% | 68.8% | 52.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 60.3% | +4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 48.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 14 | 9-2-3 | 75.0% | 69.4% | 57.8% | +3.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 33.6% | -15.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.4% | +4.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Losers more often ran: Frostbind.
No cards correlated with winning.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |